Workshop: Prediction in Epidemiology and Healthcare

Co-Sponsored by the British Society for the Philosophy of Science and the Centre for the Humanities and Health, King’s College London

20 June 2014, 9:00am – 5:15 pm, King’s College London


Luis Flores (King’s) and Jonathan Fuller (Toronto) – “The Risk GP Model: The Standard Approach to Prediction in Healthcare”

Alex Broadbent (Johannesburg) – “Is Stability a Stable Category in Medical Epistemology?”

Maël Lemoine (Tours) – “Prediction from Preclinical Studies. The Tragic Case of TGN1412”

Barbara Osimani (Camerino) – “Safety Signals and Causal Information in Pharmacology: Evidence for Harm Prediction from Phase 0 to 4”

Federica Russo (Ferrara) – “The Integration of Social and Biological Mechanisms for Healthcare Prediction and Intervention”

Elselijn Kingma (Southampton) – TBA

Jacob Stegenga (Utah) – “Measuring Effectiveness”

Jeremy Howick (Oxford) – “Using Grünbaum’s Definition of Placebos to Improve the Predictive Power of Placebo Controlled Trials”

About the Workshop

Predicting what will happen is a central concern in epidemiology, health policy, public health, and clinical practice. Predictions are made about prognosis, about the benefits and harms of interventions and other exposures, about populations, and about individuals. The theme of prediction is also of growing interest in the philosophy of medicine, and includes topics such as: measuring the effectiveness of interventions; extrapolating from clinical research studies; applying average results to individuals; the use of mechanisms, causal models or animal models to predict; probabilities and predictions. The principle aim of this workshop is to bring together scholars working on various projects on prediction in order to further develop this important theme in the philosophy of medicine.

Registration for the workshop is free but mandatory. Space will be limited. For questions or to register contact Jonathan Fuller (

Organizers: Jonathan Fuller ( and Luis Flores (

About Alex Broadbent

Director of the Institute for the Future of Knowledge and Professor of Philosophy, University of Johannesburg
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